Just as I began my blog at the end of the 3rd week of April with a critique about a John Stossel show that he put together around the year 2000 in which he suggested that laws to keep the air and water clean were unnecessary because somehow the air and water in the U.S. had gotten much cleaner over the previous 30 years (I wonder how that happened!), along came a fresh Stossel opinion piece where he asserted that climate scientists have greatly exaggerated the potential threat to our civilization posed by climate change. This time around, JS timed his piece to hit shortly before Earth Day, with a snarky title pun aimed at environmentalists, but the main target of his scorn was a climate science report recently released by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
A few years ago, the Sierra Club magazine published a pair of satellite photos of the Arctic, with September of 1971 next to September of 2011, and just looking at those pictures, I could clearly see the dramatic loss of sea ice now occurring at the end of the northern hemisphere's warm season, compared with much smaller melting from 4 decades earlier. However, when I showed those pictures to a guy living in my house who leaned to the political right wing, he looked at me as if I was playing some sly liberal trick on him, and he muttered something about having seen different pictures of the Arctic sea ice.
Now climate scientists are predicting that within a few short years, and possibly as soon as the summer of 2016, which is a little over 2 years from now, the Arctic will experience a period with no sea ice whatsoever. I do not need a climate scientist to tell me that this is a major change, because I know that just 4 decades ago, the Arctic sea ice, even at its lowest point near the end of the warm season, still extended well beyond the Arctic circle, but apparently people like Mr. Stossel and my old right-wing housemate do not see the complete loss of Arctic sea ice as anything particularly important.
I haven't studied climate science, and so I must defer to the experts when it comes to the details. In the absence of scientists, I wouldn't know that this lack of Arctic sea ice has not occurred during all of the time that human beings have walked the earth, and I also wouldn't have guessed that an average temperature rise of a few degrees C would have caused such a major ice melt. In addition, I wouldn't know what this lack of Arctic sea ice might mean going forward, but I can clearly see that an Arctic with no sea ice will be a dramatic change, not just from 1971, but even from September of 2011, which is less than 3 years ago, and so I have no trouble believing the experts when they predict that this major change will bring about other major changes. Somehow, Mr. Stossel, and probably my old right-wing housemate as well, can see the prediction of an ice-free Arctic coming true, and still say that the scientists who made that prediction are exaggerating its significance. Perhaps the daze that JS sees is just the reflection of what surrounds his own head, but I doubt that he'll ever consider that possibility.